The Future of the Powersports Aftermarket in the Coming Age of Disruption

TL;DR: The powersports aftermarket is projected to nearly double from $12B to $21B+ by 2034 — but the operating model behind that growth is being rewritten in real time. Three forces are converging: AI is transforming product development, fitment, and AEO-driven commerce; private equity is replacing the founder class and professionalizing operations; and Gen Z is entering prime riding years with radically different expectations around risk, ownership, and brand. The winners will master all three.

Futureproofing the Aftermarket — A First-Principles Look

The legendary coach and poet Yogi Berra once said, “…it’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future,” which brilliantly highlighted the fact that forecasting the future, with its inherent unpredictability, is basically impossible.

Luckily for you, dear reader, sage advice has seldom deterred your humble scribe from going off on tangents, so we’re going to dive straight into futureproofing the powersports aftermarket. Buckle up, and strap on your helmets….

The Cultural Context — Why Powersports Still Matter

Whether on the open road, dusty trails, or muddy bogs, powersports (for this discussion we’re focusing on motorcycles and ATV/UTVs) have long embodied the American ethos of freedom, adventure, rebellion, and just plain fun. While historically overall participation rates as a percentage of the overall population are fairly small — mid-single digits at best — the cultural impact of powersports in a broader sense has always punched above its weight.

Whether fashion, movies, music, or marketing, powersports — and motorcycles in particular — have been an avatar for “cool” for well over a century. Indeed, the “biker lifestyle” remains a compelling and relevant cultural touchstone in the West, even as levels of interest in the sport/activity itself are flattening out in some segments.

Ever-changing cultural norms, the “aging out” of the riding population, less tolerance for physical risk, digital recreational alternatives, and economic challenges — especially for younger potential riders — are all converging to create one of the most dynamic and challenging periods of disruption ever in the history of the industry. But first, some good news.

The Good News — The Market Is Growing

The global powersports aftermarket, valued at roughly $12 billion in 2024, is projected to reach over $21 billion by 2034, which would mean achieving a steady 6.3% CAGR (disclaimer: accurate numbers as it relates to aftermarket sales volume is tough to vet, as there are many sources employing varying definitions as to what’s included in the data. What we can be more sure of is nearly all sources point to a growth rate between 5% and 6.5%).

So the good news here is the potential for growth is real, and backed up by more recent trend data. Post-COVID, the industry is relatively healthy, if not robust, and continues to correct for pandemic production excesses and the normalizing of demand.

The Three Forces Reshaping the Aftermarket

The growth is real, but the drivers are shifting. The industry that once thrived on the genius of garage-born innovation and passionate weekend warriors must now balance efficiency, scale, and safety-first appeal. Therefore we believe the aftermarket’s future hinges on three intersecting forces:

Artificial intelligence reshaping business operations, including product design and development
A generational transition from a passionate founder class to an industry-outsider investor/private equity class
A Gen Z cohort that loves the outdoors but tends to recoil from unchecked or excessive risk

Of course there are other key drivers, not the least of which are issues of overall affordability, the loss of luster of the “biker lifestyle,” and the aging out of Boomers. But for the moment, let’s dive into the impact of our top three disruptors as we see them.

Force #1: AI Is Rewriting the Operating Model

Artificial intelligence, or AI, has already begun to change some of the “unglamorous” but vital work of keeping the right parts on shelves. Demand forecasting models that once relied on seasonal averages now crunch telematics data, weather patterns, regional riding habits, and even social sentiment to slash inventory bloat by up to 30% while lifting service levels.

With regard to parts development, generative AI accelerates custom design, rapid prototyping of everything from brackets, fairings, and performance upgrades. Apparel will benefit even more directly: virtual try-on tools let riders upload photos and see how a jacket or helmet looks and fits before buying, slashing return rates for the retailer. AI-driven fitment databases reduce the classic “will it work on my bike model?” headache.

Probably even more impactful than all of the above, AEO (Answer Engine Optimization), chatbots, and recommendation engines are turning casual browsers into buyers, while predictive maintenance alerts nudge owners toward timely service and upgrades. AEO, zero-click search, and interactive customer problem-solving will be transformative. Retailers that rely on traditional SEO only will be left in the dust. Customers will no longer tolerate a list of “blue links” that they have to sort through, as the answer engines synthesize information and deliver a concise, direct response (often with source citations). While AEO alone isn’t necessarily “better” than SEO in isolation, the two work best together, but AEO is more aligned with how people now interact with search in the AI era. SEO still gets you on the playing field, but AEO helps you win by becoming the definitive answer.

Force #2: The Founder Class Is Aging Out — PE Is Moving In

The powersports founder class is aging out, at an accelerated pace, and it’s remaking the competitive landscape. For decades the powersports aftermarket was a founder-led, almost cottage industry — think garage tinkerers who launched seat companies, exhaust brands, or apparel lines out of pure passion and love of the sport. That era is fading. Private equity has swept in over the past decade or so, rolling up distributors, manufacturers, retailers, and brands, mirroring a broader automotive consolidation.

The appeal to PEs is obvious: aftermarket cash flows are relatively recession-resistant, the customer base is passionate and loyal. PEs offer the opportunity for much-needed investment into improving infrastructure, national distribution, data-driven operational management, and more…..but also tension. Founders and entrepreneurs that once bet on gut feel and innovation are now faced with PE-driven imperatives: ditching innovation in favor of optimization, KPIs, EBITDA margins, and exit horizons.

While the track record for PEs in powersports is “spotty,” there have been major successes. CoMoto comes to mind, as their portfolio of companies continue to grow and thrive while staying true to founding principles. But there have been disasters too, the most dramatic being the implosion of one of the largest distributors in the industry, Tucker Rocky. But here’s the crux: together, PEs and powersports could chart an amazing and profitable future. PEs can professionalize what was often chaotic from an operational perspective, and apply much-needed sound business fundamentals. Simply put, the winners will be those who preserve founder DNA, along with a respect for institutional industry knowledge, while harnessing institutional capital. If powersports leaders and insiders can be open to the inevitable change, while PEs maintain respect and humility toward an industry they didn’t build, great things will happen. Fingers crossed.

Force #3: Gen Z Is the Wildcard

Yet investment and tech alone cannot solve the demand equation at a generational level, as Gen Z, now entering prime earning and riding years, is the wildcard on the table. Data shows they participate heavily in outdoor sports (over 60% engagement). They crave adventure, but on their terms — with lower perceived risk, higher social validation, and environmental alignment. Motorcycling’s traditionally high insurance premiums, injury stats, and “organ donor” reputation deter many potential Gen Z riders from taking that first step. In addition, this cohort favors experiences over ownership — rental fleets, subscription models, and guided tours.

Powersports as a lifestyle has far less appeal to Gen Z. As a matter of fact, many see what were the more compelling aspects of the sport — freedom, rebellion, and outsider chic — as dated. They’re not interested in what their dads did “back in the day.” There’s very little nostalgia for “biker culture.” What this means is powersports’ challenge is to meet Gen Z where they are, which is not in the garage rebuilding a carburetor, but rather on an app booking a weekend SxS rental with preconfigured safety upgrades and stylish gear that photographs well for IG. The bottom line is Gen Z will be a driving force one way or the other in powersports as the industry evolves, and it’s up to that very industry to make itself relevant and desirable to what should be a very productive demographic.

So What Does the Future Look Like?

So what do we make of the future of the powersports aftermarket? While the interplay of the three aforementioned drivers — AI, private equity, and Gen Z — paints a nuanced future, we believe that future is positive. PE will professionalize and consolidate the market, potentially squeezing smaller innovators unless they can carve defensible niches. AI will deliver efficiency and creativity at an unprecedented scale, lowering barriers for customization and global reach.

Societal risk aversion may temper raw OE unit sales while amplifying demand for safer, smarter, more accessible products…exactly the sweet spot for aftermarket innovation. That said, challenges remain — tariffs, supply chain fragility, regulatory patchwork around off-road access — but the tailwinds are stronger.

The aftermarket that emerges by 2035 will look less like today’s patchwork of founder shops and more like a data-driven, experience-oriented ecosystem. Riders will still chase freedom and adventure, but the industry enabling the chase will be more focused, efficient, smarter, and inclusive. Those who master AI, honor founder spirit under PE discipline, and speak Gen Z’s language of safe and sustainable adventure will not merely survive — they will redefine what it means to ride into the future.

Ride Hard, Take Chances

— Hank

Key Takeaways

The global powersports aftermarket is projected to grow from roughly $12B in 2024 to $21B+ by 2034 — a 5–6.5% CAGR. Growth is real, but the operating model behind it is being rewritten.
AI is already slashing inventory bloat by up to 30%, powering virtual try-on tools, smarter fitment databases, and AEO-driven commerce that pulls customers past the traditional blue-link search experience.
Private equity has moved in as the founder class ages out — bringing capital, discipline, and operational professionalism, but also tension with the gut-feel innovation culture that built the industry.
Gen Z participates heavily in outdoor sports but recoils from traditional motorcycling’s risk profile and biker-culture nostalgia. They favor experiences over ownership and want safer, more social, more photogenic products.
The winners of the next decade will master all three forces — AI efficiency, PE discipline without losing founder DNA, and Gen Z–relevant product and experience design.

Frequently Asked Questions

How big is the powersports aftermarket, and how fast is it growing? The global powersports aftermarket was valued at roughly $12 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach over $21 billion by 2034 — a steady 5–6.5% CAGR. EightFootBrands tracks this closely because growth is real, but the drivers are shifting rapidly.

What are the biggest disruptors facing the powersports aftermarket? Three intersecting forces: AI reshaping product development, fitment, and e-commerce discovery; private equity consolidating the industry as the founder class ages out; and Gen Z entering riding years with very different expectations around risk, ownership, and brand.

How is AI changing powersports e-commerce? AI is transforming demand forecasting (cutting inventory bloat up to 30%), accelerating product and apparel design through generative tools, improving fitment databases, and — most importantly — powering Answer Engine Optimization (AEO) that synthesizes answers directly rather than returning a list of blue links.

What role is private equity playing in the powersports industry? PE has been consolidating distributors, manufacturers, retailers, and brands for the past decade, bringing capital and operational discipline. Results have been mixed — CoMoto is a major success, Tucker Rocky was a disaster. The winners preserve founder DNA while harnessing institutional capital.

Why doesn’t Gen Z engage with traditional biker culture? Gen Z sees freedom, rebellion, and outsider chic as dated. They participate heavily in outdoor sports but want lower perceived risk, more social validation, and products that fit their digital-first, experience-over-ownership mindset. The industry has to meet them where they are.